Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, May 24th

Friday’s bond market has opened relatively calm as traders appear ready to coast into the holiday weekend. Stocks are showing gains of 47 points in the Dow and 79 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (4.47%), but weakness late yesterday is going to cause this morning’s mortgage rates to be approximately .125 of a discount point higher than Thursday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday change yesterday afternoon, you will likely see no change this morning.



30 yr - 4.47%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Durable Goods Orders

April’s Durable Goods Orders report that was released at 8:30 AM ET indicated stronger than expected manufacturing activity. It revealed a 0.7% rise in news orders for big-ticket products such as airplanes, appliances, and electronics. Analysts were expecting to see a decline in new orders. This data is known to be quite volatile from month to month, so the variance between forecasts and the actual number isn’t nearly as meaningful as it would have been if it came in many other reports. That said, even secondary readings within today’s report that are believed to be more stable also came in above forecasts. These point towards manufacturing sector growth, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.



Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

Concluding this week’s data was May’s revised Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan at 10:00 ET. They announced a reading of 69.1 that was higher than the 67.4 from two weeks ago, meaning surveyed consumers were a little more optimistic about their own financial situations than earlier in the month. This is technically bad news for rates because rising sentiment usually translates into stronger consumer spending that fuels economic growth. Fortunately, a secondary reading in the release that tracks feelings about inflation was a tad lower than predicted, helping to offset the negative headlines in this morning’s data.



Holiday Schedule

Keep in mind that the bond market is closing at 2:00 PM ET today as part of Monday’s Memorial Day holiday recognition. Stocks are set to trade for a full day today but will also be closed Monday. Don’t be surprised to see a bit of pressure in bonds later today as traders look to protect themselves over the three-plus day weekend.




Next week has a fairly full calendar with at least one event scheduled each trading day that has the potential to affect mortgage rates. It begins Tuesday with a consumer confidence reading and ends Friday with the report that includes the Fed’s preferred inflation reading. In between, we will get an updated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading for the first quarter, the Fed Beige Book and a couple of Treasury auctions. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.